Executive Summary

Q4 delivered a clean beat versus guidance: GMV $94.5M (above $86–$93M guide), revenue $22.77M (above $21.4–$22.7M), and Adjusted EBITDA margin of -7.2% (better than -17% to -13% guide), driven by conversion gains, AOV rebound, and disciplined spend .
Growth inflection: net revenue +9% YoY to $22.8M, gross margin +80 bps YoY to 72.3%, and GMV +9% YoY—the fastest GMV growth in three years—signaling share gains despite a weak luxury home environment .
Q1 2025 outlook guides GMV $90–$96M, revenue $21.7–$22.8M, and Adjusted EBITDA margin -12% to -8%, reflecting continued conversion gains but ongoing macro softness and elevated OpEx seasonality in Q1 .
Capital allocation supports the equity story: ~$5.3M repurchased in Q4; ~$31.6M cumulatively since program inception, with $104M cash and investments at year-end, providing ample flexibility to invest in ML/AI initiatives and organic traffic/product velocity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Conversion momentum and product velocity: five consecutive quarters of YoY conversion increases; record A/B testing cadence; faster checkout; ML-driven pricing expanded from furniture (Q3) to jewelry (Q4) .
- Demand quality and mix improved: AOV ~$2,600 (+2% QoQ), median ~$1,200 (+4% QoQ); orders under $1,000 fell to ~46% of total, aiding revenue flow-through .
- Share gains in a down market: GMV +9% YoY and revenue +9% YoY, outgrowing contracting online furniture/home categories; Vintage & Antique furniture grew double digits .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP losses widened YoY in Q4: net loss of $5.21M vs $2.94M a year ago, with elevated sales/marketing and tech costs tied to merit increases, selective hiring (ML team), and seasonal marketing .
- Seller churn spiked after retiring the “essential” (zero sub-fee) plan; unique sellers -24% YoY, although GMV/listings impact was de minimis and >1,200 of ~2,200 affected sellers upgraded to paid plans .
- Macro remains a headwind: management cited U.S. existing home sales near 30-year lows and contracting premium home furnishings categories; recovery timing remains uncertain .

Financial Results

P&L and Margins vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Net Revenue ($M)	$20.92	$21.19	$22.77
Gross Profit ($M)	$14.96	$15.04	$16.46
Gross Margin (%)	71.5%	71.0%	72.3%
GAAP Net Loss ($M)	$(2.94)	$(5.68)	$(5.21)
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.07)	$(0.15)	$(0.14)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$(1.70)	$(2.98)	$(1.64)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	(8.1)%	(14.1)%	(7.2)%

KPI Trends (Chronological)

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
GMV ($M)	$91.5	$84.6	$94.5
Orders (‘000)	~34	~33	~37
Active Buyers (‘000)	~61	~63	~64

Additional Q4 2024 Operating KPIs

KPI	Q4 2024
Average Order Value	~$2,600
Median Order Value	~$1,200
Orders under $1,000 (% of total)	~46%
Listings (end of period)	>1.8M (+5% YoY)
Unique Sellers (end of period)	~5,900 (-24% YoY; churn tied to plan changes)

Balance Sheet/Liquidity

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Cash + Short-term Investments ($M)	~$139.3 (37.4 + 101.9)	$109.4	$103.9

Q4 2024 Results vs Q4 2024 Guidance (set on Nov 8, 2024)

Metric	Guidance (Q4’24)	Actual (Q4’24)	Result
GMV ($M)	$86 – $93	$94.5	Above high end
Net Revenue ($M)	$21.4 – $22.7	$22.77	Above high end
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%)	(17)% – (13)%	(7.2)%	Above high end (less negative)

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
GMV ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$90 – $96	New
Net Revenue ($M)	Q1 2025	N/A	$21.7 – $22.8	New
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	Q1 2025	N/A	(12)% – (8)%	New

Context: Guidance reflects ongoing conversion gains offset by traffic pressure and macro softness; gross margin 71–72% and seasonal OpEx headwinds (merit increases, health premiums, audit/SOX fees) embedded in Q1 margin guide .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI/ML initiatives	Not emphasized in PR	Not emphasized in PR	ML pricing expanded from furniture (Q3) to jewelry (Q4); shipping pricing next; personalization and CS agents on roadmap	Increasing focus
Conversion/product velocity	“Conversion rate expansion”; best Adj. EBITDA margins as public company	“Progress across key metrics,” two consecutive quarters of revenue/orders growth	5 consecutive quarters of conversion gains; record A/B testing cadence; faster checkout	Improving
Macro/housing	Return to growth but macro weak	Ongoing challenges in luxury housing	U.S. home sales near 30-year low; category contraction persists	Still soft
Pricing/shipping transparency	—	—	Competitive pricing emphasis; expand ML pricing; increase shipping pre-quote coverage and accuracy to lift conversion	New execution focus
Category performance	—	GMV -5% YoY; aiming for Q4 GMV growth	GMV +9% YoY; Vintage & Antique furniture double-digit growth; new/custom furniture -1%	Positive mix
Seller base/listings	—	—	Sellers ~5,900 (-24%) due to plan change; listings >1.8M (+5% YoY); churn expected to normalize H1’25	Listings stable/up; sellers normalizing
Marketing mix/traffic	—	—	~70% organic traffic; Facebook performing; ongoing Google optimization; paid growth slower	Balanced; organic-led
Capital returns	—	Board authorized $10M buyback (Aug 2024)	~$5.3M repurchased in Q4; ~$31.6M cumulative	Ongoing

Management Commentary

Strategy and execution: “2024 marked a turning point, highlighted by our highest GMV growth in three years in the fourth quarter… Market share gains and a return to revenue growth… are clear signals that our strategy is working.” — CEO David Rosenblatt .
Operating leverage plan: “Our plan for 2025 is to hold headcount flat and unlock operating leverage at mid-single-digit revenue growth.” — CEO David Rosenblatt . “Our expense base is set up to deliver operating leverage at mid-single-digit revenue growth.” — CFO Tom Etergino .
Product and ML roadmap: “Launched a machine learning-based pricing model for jewelry… following furniture in Q3… We are also pointing ML at shipping pricing… and projects like personalization, customer service agents are on our roadmap.” — CEO David Rosenblatt .
Market context and share gains: “GMV was $94.5 million, up 9%… in stark contrast to our end markets, which continue to contract” — CFO Tom Etergino . “We exited 2024 from a position of strength… renewed momentum, market share gains and margin improvements validate our strategy.” — CEO David Rosenblatt .

Q&A Highlights

Marketing strategy: Customer acquisition remains priority; strong results on Facebook with continued optimization of Google .
AI focus areas: ML pricing (furniture, jewelry; rest in 2025), shipping pre-quote coverage/accuracy, personalization, CS agents; expected to drive both revenue and cost efficiencies .
Path to breakeven: EBITDA positivity depends on sustained revenue/GMV growth with expense discipline; operating leverage targeted at mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2025 .
Seller churn normalization: Retirement of zero sub-fee plan led to elevated churn; >1,200 of ~2,200 affected sellers upgraded; churn cohort <30 bps of GMV and <40 bps of listings; normalization expected H1’25 .
Outlook clarity: Management expects GMV growth in 2025 (no full-year guidance); expense base set for leverage as revenues scale .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at the time of retrieval due to an access limit. As a result, comparisons to Street estimates cannot be provided here. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strong execution beat: Q4 GMV, revenue, and Adj. EBITDA margin all exceeded the high end of prior guidance—evidence of conversion/product wins against a soft macro backdrop .
Growth re-acceleration: Three-year-best GMV growth (+9% YoY) and gross margin expansion to 72.3% underscore share gains and marketplace resilience; Vintage & Antique furniture had double-digit GMV growth .
2025 playbook: Hold headcount flat and drive operating leverage at mid-single-digit revenue growth while scaling ML pricing and shipping transparency to lift conversion and trust .
Demand quality improving: AOV and median order value turned to tailwinds; mix shift away from sub-$1,000 orders supports monetization .
Supply-side optimization largely complete: Seller churn from plan rationalization now behind; listings continue to grow; churn seen normalizing in H1’25 .
Ample dry powder: ~$104M cash and investments plus ongoing buybacks ($31.6M cumulative) provide flexibility to invest and return capital; enhances per-share metrics as growth returns .
Near-term trading setup: Narrative centered on execution-driven growth and conversion momentum vs a weak macro; watch Q1 cadence relative to guide (seasonal OpEx headwinds) and ML-driven pricing/shipping milestones for incremental re-rating catalysts .

1stdibs.com, Inc. (DIBS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary